F'n Daytona - amazing finish

So, Waltrip's engine blows up just when I am convinced he is going to win. Earnhardt is lilke 18th at this time and his name is not even showing up on Fox's listing.

Then there is debris. Caution comes out. Earnhardt comes out of the restart and suddenly is back in the top ten with Truex pushing him to the front. And I start to get super excited. This is it. The DEI push to win. I am a genius for betting on Earnhardt. Stewart and Gordon are in the front.

Here comes Jr. and there is another wreck with 7 laps left. Jr. is now in 3rd. A miracle, how he pulled that off I am still amazed. But I see that Fox has Gordon listed as 1st and Stewart as 2nd. But wait a second, Tradesport has Gordon at $0.30. Even tho I think Jr. is going to win, I cannot let this ineffieciency slide, can I. I then dump my whole Tradesport account (all 75$ shitty dollars onto Gordon) during the pace laps, because I think he is winning. The flag waives and I realize that Gordon is not in first but Stewart is still in first and that is why I got such a good deal on Gordon. I now realize that I need either Earnhardt or Gordon to win.

Talking to Chad, I realize that Earnhardt has moved from 20th to 3rd in 5 laps and now I think that all that has to happen is Earnhardt or Gordon have to beat Stewart. If Earnhardt wins I offset the amount of money that I bet on Gordon because of the amazing +400 that I got on Earnhardt two days ago, before DEI ruled the twin 150s.

Now Gordon passes Stewart with a push from Jimmy Johnson and i try to dump Gordon who is now at 60 on tradesports, but the trading is illiquid and to top it off my Internet Explorer crashes trying to run the java quotes on Tradesports. Damn. I just need Junior or Gordon to win. Another wreck. Caution. Three laps to go. It is looking good.

But now Junior is trying to get a hold of Stewart to give him a puch to get around Gordon and he thinks he can win if everyone gets a "fast restart". Shit if Junior pushed Stewart to a win I am F'd. It restarts. I frantically trying to sell Gordon at 0.90$. Because I think Earnhardt is going to win. I cant sell Gordon, because the market is illiquid. Stewart then tries to pass Gordon on the outside but can't keep up, somehow Jimmy Johnson gets in front of him and is blocking him. The drama of NASCAR. Now, here comes Kurt Bush (where did he come from) and he is fast. He could screw up everything, but no Gordon hangs on, minting me $140 in 20 minutes of pure luck and gambling rush. Nice work Gordon. What a great race.

In the end Gordon and Earnhardt have won the last 5 restrictor plate races. They are GDGs.

Matt

ESPN has everyone making the tournament

ESPN commentators think everyone should make the tournament. They fail to realize that by definition not every marginal team in the nation can make the tourney. Only 64 teams, and every time you kick out a Vermont, or put in a Miami of Ohio someone is going to get shafted. It is the way it works. You might as well go into the NIT and try to win it if you are a bubble team, then sit there and bitch about it, because someone has to fall short. If you don't like it, win your conference championship and tell everyone to shut the F up.

You would not be on the bubble if you were not marginal. Suck it up and take your fate.

ESPN --- Not everyone can make the tournament. Not every marginal team can get an at large bid.

Pacific just covered by one point, because of a pointless foul with 7 seconds left. Thank you UTEP for trying to win the game when it was impossible.

Matt

UCONN Providence

Providence Uconn

I am trying to post my Tradesports chart for Providence vs UCONN. This was an unbelievable spread game. UCONN covers in double overtime. For some reason I cannot post the chart. But the contract on UCONN -3.5 was as low as $0.05 on the dollar. It then hits basically a +2000 shot.

My next bet is DEI on the Daytona 500. Earnhardt +400, Waltrip +800. DEI has one 10 out of 15 of the past restrictor plate races. They are more dominant at Talladega but it still is a good bet. I was trying to figure out the optimal bet and I think it is bet 20% Waltrip annd 80% Earnhardt. But that is just based on the +800 paying me for the Waltrip win.

Anything can happen in college sports

The St. Mary's (CA) +10.5 vs Gonzaga yesterday could be the best sports betting line that I have ever seen, but given my sports betting history was probably far from a lock. When St. Mary's was winning on the Zag's home court by 12 I thought for sure that it was in the bag.

Then Gonzaga goes on a miracle run and the line was in question with one minute left to play. I guess it goes to show the damn randomness of sports betting. Nothing is a lock. At least St. Mary's covered but it is hard to believe that they could not pull out the win when they are up by 12 at half time.

I may think backwards but when I see a team up by 12, I think that the line for Gonzaga to win is now -12. It seems almost hard to believe that they could be -12 to win over St. Mary's but then they come back and do win and almost cover a +10.5 spread. I think there was something in Moneyball about the losing team's bias. Which I remember as the team in front lays back a little when they are winning and the losing team fights to claw back. I call this line mean reversion. I guess thats why the 2nd half lines are always shifted in favor of the team that is losing.

Nothing is a lock.

Matt