Anything can happen in college sports

The St. Mary's (CA) +10.5 vs Gonzaga yesterday could be the best sports betting line that I have ever seen, but given my sports betting history was probably far from a lock. When St. Mary's was winning on the Zag's home court by 12 I thought for sure that it was in the bag.

Then Gonzaga goes on a miracle run and the line was in question with one minute left to play. I guess it goes to show the damn randomness of sports betting. Nothing is a lock. At least St. Mary's covered but it is hard to believe that they could not pull out the win when they are up by 12 at half time.

I may think backwards but when I see a team up by 12, I think that the line for Gonzaga to win is now -12. It seems almost hard to believe that they could be -12 to win over St. Mary's but then they come back and do win and almost cover a +10.5 spread. I think there was something in Moneyball about the losing team's bias. Which I remember as the team in front lays back a little when they are winning and the losing team fights to claw back. I call this line mean reversion. I guess thats why the 2nd half lines are always shifted in favor of the team that is losing.

Nothing is a lock.

Matt